What it does
Scopes the work, tags each item by risk tier, then produces a metrics-based estimate (from repo/CI history) and an independent expert-based bottom-up estimate per test-process activity, reconciles the two, applies risk/automation/environment/regression/contingency adjustment factors, and reports a low–high person-day range with a confidence level.
When to use it
When sizing a test effort or sprint capacity. Feeds the Test Plan's schedule and resourcing.
Prerequisites
qa.config.yml recommended (risk tiers, gates, tooling, environments, test_data); proceeds with stated assumptions if missing. Reads repo signals (test counts, CI durations) as the metrics baseline.
Output
Test-effort input to the ISO/IEC/IEEE 29119-3 Test Plan (resourcing & schedule) -> <paths.docs_dir>/ESTIMATE-<release>.md (not a standalone 29119-3 work product).
Mechanics
How it works
- Establish scope; tag items by risk tier; record applicable levels and types
- Metrics-based estimate from repo/CI ratios; mark (no baseline) where absent
- Expert-based bottom-up estimate per ISTQB activity and test type
- Reconcile the two; explain divergences over ~30%
- Apply adjustment factors (risk, automation split, env/data, regression, contingency)
- Produce total as a low–high range with a stated confidence level
Why it works
The theory behind it
ISTQB test estimation techniques (CTAL-TM) supporting the Test Plan within the planning activity. Two complementary techniques are used because each corrects the other's bias; the output is a forecast expressed as a range, never a single false-precise number (Principle 1 — an estimate is not a guarantee).
CTAL-TM · CTFL v4.0 §5.1
Example
See it in use
> /qa:estimate "R2.4 — guest checkout + saved cards"✓ Correct when It shows both a metrics-based and an expert-based figure with assumptions and a reconciled range, not a single guess.
Related commands
Used by